50회 이전에는 확률 x로 가정

50부터는 2%씩 더해서 100연차에는 100% 된다고 하고 그리고 1~100뽑 평균값이 2% 라고 가정

해서 챗gpt로 계산 돌려봣는데 

요약은 맨 아랫줄로

Since the probability of selecting x is static until the 50th pull, we can denote the probability of selecting x before the 50th pull as p, as before.

After the 50th pull, the probability of selecting x increases by 2% on every additional pull until it reaches 100% on the 100th pull. Therefore, the probability of selecting x at the 100th pull is 100%.

Using the formula for the sum of an arithmetic series, we can calculate the total probability of selecting x:

P(x selected) = p * 50 + 2% * (51 + 52 + ... + 100) + 100% = p * 50 + 2% * (100 + 51) * 25 + 100% = p * 50 + 1275/2% = p * 50 + 0.01275

We know that the average probability of selecting x across all the pulls is 2%:

P(x selected) = 2% = 0.02

Substituting this into the equation, we can solve for p:

0.02 = p * 50 + 0.01275 p = (0.02 - 0.01275) / 50 p ≈ 0.000135

Therefore, the probability of selecting x before the 50th pull is approximately 0.0135%. This is the same result as in the previous question, since the average probability of selecting x across all the pulls being 2% does not affect the probability of selecting x before the 50th pull when the probability is static.

50연차 까지 SSR확률이 0.0135%나오네

계산식 얼핏 보면 맞는것같은데 통계쪽은 다 까먹어서 저렇게 계산하는게 맞나싶기도 하고 ㅋㅋ

근데 실제로 50연차 전에는 안뜨는 수준인거 보면 또 설득력 잇기도하고 씻팔 ㅋㅋ

진짜 2% 겜중에서 역대급으로 안뜨는 겜같음